Colorado State meteorologists forecast above-average hurricane season

Saul Bowman
April 6, 2018

The trio of devastating storms, which struck in late August and September 2017, had a much more devastating impact on the electric power industry, leaving millions without power for varying periods in the US Southeast and Puerto Rico.

"The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño this summer/fall".

According to Kottlowski, conditions are ripe for early season development in the Gulf of Mexico due the warm water already in place in that part of the Atlantic basin.

The First Alert Weather Team looks forward to keeping you informed this hurricane season.

The good news is this season won't be almost as notable as last years, with three major hurricanes - Harvey, Irma and Maria - whipping into the US and it's territories. The average risk is 52 percent. The average hurricane season sees 12 named storms and six hurricanes.

"No one could say in early August past year we were going to witness the apocalypse", Klotzbach said. "This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal", AccuWeather forecaster Dan Kottlowski said.

The last few years, Atlantic waters have started the year colder than normal but have significantly warmed in the spring and summer, CSU research scientist and forecast lead author Phil Klotzbach.

The team believes three hurricanes will be strong enough to become major hurricanes - Category 3 and above - and there is a 63 percent chance a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast. 2017 also brought two major hurricane landfalls to the United States, with Harvey hitting Texas, and Irma striking here in SWFL. This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the US coast to 55°W.

The upcoming hurricane season could be just as busy as last year's, according to the Colorado State University preliminary forecast. However, if a storm is considered too deadly or damage caused by a storm deemed too costly, the name is no longer be used for reasons of sensitivity.

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